Saturday, February 25, 2012

AR Glasses - A followup to "smartphone revolution is dead"

As far as AR (Augmented Reality, or the use of computer generated content to enhance our view of the real world) is concerned in this context. I think we are a LONG way from seeing AR Glasses replacing smartphones in the literal sense for a couple of major reasons. 1) Until we have a battery tech revolution, there's just NO way glasses will provide the housing and support needed to power the radios for high-speed, wireless communication (forget everything else even). 2) Fashion is a fact of life and I'm willing to be quoted as saying "the majority of people not already having a need to wear glasses are not going to adopt the fashion or hassle unless the glasses are as or more light and unobtrusive as a decent pair are not (without all the tech)." 3) There is SOO much more flexibility in the combination of a smartphone/tablet/belt-computer/etc.. AND AR glasses because you could work without the glasses, minimize battery weight in the glasses, reduce cost by minimizing the need to micro-scale EVERY aspect of the technology, etc..

More than 10 years ago I saw the future of computing and tablets were the first call I made that came to be. A form of AR will be my 2nd and I've kept quite on the public front while I sought out investors for patents and/or a product, but I think the technology as a whole has gone far enough for me to begin to share my vision publicly and it's really not far from what's already come to be in many places, but I'm yet to see the complete picture that I envision, come to be anywhere else and in the end, I DO see AR glasses becoming a standard at the desktop. I think I'll just have to write a paper here soon to go in depth, but that said, I just don't see it becoming the defacto-standard for mobile displays. I think we're more likely to see some sort of viable live-holography come to life and be implemented before that happens (and that is also an idea that a ways off).

Friday, February 24, 2012

The smartphone revolution is dead! So says "Think with Google" anyway.

In reply to:

The Smartphone Revolution Is Over (For Now)

BY KIT EATONThu Feb 23, 2012

<sarcasm>I agree that the "revolution is dead" because we've gone a few months without a major upgrade.</sarcasm>

Seriously people, do you realize how freakishly rapid progress has been with these mobile computers? Your expectations (+Think with Google) have been blown WAY out of proportion and you need to give the market a bit to catch up. The reason we're not seeing major innovations (like built-in laser projectors, dual-screens, etc..) more is because there's no incentive for the OEMs to provide these things when everyone is gladly sucking up every minor change that requires almost NO investment in R&D or manufacturing processes. When there's a significant reduction is purchasing of the incrementally improved devices rolling out, THEN we will once again see major change.

Android for example (as we've seen) is geared to do some very significant things in terms of hardware support and UI changes. Imagine for example a built in projector that could provide a 12" screen from a device less than 5" tall that used 1/2 front-camera(s) to provide minority-reports (can we say Kinect) like interactions. The tech is there.

The financial incentive to move forward just isn't yet. It's the EXACT same market behavior we see with Hard-disk storage capacities. What we see on the shelves is always 1+ years behind what the manufactures COULD do at a profit, but as long as they're cashing in on the current capacities knowing they can then sell you a larger drive 3-6 months later (doubling profit), why would they release the larger drives? Get it?